Intensifying Rhetorical Battle Involving Ethiopian Government and Eritrean Government Triggers Anxieties of Conflict

Growing concerns are present regarding the potential of warfare among Horn of Africa countries, Ethiopia and Eritrea, as hostile rhetoric has escalated in the last month.

Horn of Africa region
The Ethiopian government and The Eritrean government worked together in the armed struggle in northern Ethiopia but they have subsequently disagreed.

What Has Ethiopia Declared?

Landlocked Ethiopia's calls for access to the maritime outlet through Eritrea has sparked a intense rhetorical conflict.

Ethiopian Prime Minister initially stated publicly in the previous year that his government's sea access was an existential matter, remarks that Eritrean authorities dismissed.

Relations between the both governments have often been tense. Following a long-standing fight for sovereignty, Eritrea, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) Red Sea coastline, officially seceded from Ethiopia in 1993, leaving it without sea access.

In 1998, a territorial conflict broke out in which more than 100,000 people died.

Recent Comments from Ethiopia's Government

Abiy and military leader Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have openly claimed sovereignty of Eritrea's maritime facility of the port of Assab – about 60km from the border - and implied the wish to seize it militarily.

In early September, Abiy said the country's "error" of being denied passage to the sea as a result of Eritrean independence would be "addressed in the future".

The Ethiopian envoy to neighboring Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that the port was "Ethiopian property" and would be given back "using武力".

Eritrea's Answer to the Statements

Despite continuous threats from Ethiopia, Asmara's position has been confined to brief comments on online platforms from Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel.

The minister has dismissed Ethiopia's push for sea access describing it as "risky" and a "negative policy" of "territorial claims" – a policy of claiming back previous domains.

Government spokespeople alerted on mid-September that efforts to validate "flagrant aggression" would have major implications for the Ethiopian government and its neighbouring countries and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Movements on the Ground

So far, there are little evidence of major military movements in the boundary zones between the both nations.

Nonetheless, in Ethiopia, state television has broadcast completion events of many recruits at multiple army bases.

The head of personnel division of the defense force, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, recently said in an discussion that the army was in a "secure situation" as "tens of thousands of recruits" were joining it, which he said was "a warning to our enemies".

Previous Origins of the Dispute

For over fifty years from 1890, Eritrea was ruled by colonial powers.

After the end of Italian rule, it was then managed by the British administration before evolving into a associated territory of Ethiopia.

But in the early 1960s the ruler cancelled this agreement and the region became fully incorporated into Ethiopia.

A thirty-year civil war followed, concluding with Ethiopia's defeat in 1991. Sovereignty was then approved by the population in a vote in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were friendly connections between the authorities in Addis Ababa and Eritrea's capital, but they fell out over the precise positioning of their shared boundary, leading to conflict in 1998.

Though this concluded in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was incompletely executed, and the two nations continued at loggerheads.

This ended in 2018, when Abiy made approaches to Eritrea's leader Isaias Afwerki. The two signed a announcement that the conflict was over – a action that gained the Prime Minister the Nobel Peace Prize.

The two governments were then allies in the country's 2020-2022 armed struggle in Tigray.

Yet relations have later worsened again.

Michael Sanford
Michael Sanford

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